Bitcoin has made a minor recovery this week to regain position in the mid-$7,000 region. Zooming out to the monthly view though still portrays a steep down trend and the bears may not be over just yet. Will Black Friday turn into a red one for Bitcoin today?
Bitcoin Holding Ground
Following its mid-week pump, Bitcoin has remained at the $7,500 level for the past day or so. A quick visit above $7,600 yesterday did not last long and within a few hours BTC had fallen back again to hit an intraday low at $7,380 right on the 50 hour moving average according to Tradingview.com.
From there it regained a little composure to return to the $7,450 level following a golden cross on the very short time framed hourly chart.
Since its six month low of $6,550 on Monday Bitcoin has recovered almost 14% and in the short term appears to be bullish. The longer term charts are clearly bearish though and Bitcoin has dumped over 20% this month making it a red November.
Compared to late November last year though things are not looking too bad as BTC was trading just over $4k back then and had further to fall.
Traders and analysts are not fully convinced the bear run is over yet, and as ‘DonAlt’ pointed out this week’s green candle is only 50% the size of last week’s heavy red one.
“4 weeks of selling followed by 1 week of bounce isn’t necessarily as bullish as the small timeframes make it out to be. For reference, this green candle “only” reclaimed 50% of the previous one.”
Naturally everyone wants to know where the short term tops and bottoms will be. This analyst at least contradicted his ‘not going long’ opinion with not going short either. He added that at the moment it is not easy to guess (which is really what a lot of price predicting is) where BTC will go next.
A break to the upside should fill the green candle or at least return to $8,200 while a buy zone would be anything below $6,200.
The daily chart also shows the 200 day moving average leveling out and starting to turn south which is strong indication that the uptrend which began in April has definitely run out of steam. Of course this indicator is an extremely lagging one which response a long time after Bitcoin has moved so could of course go the other way if a trend reversal occurs.
Chart guru Peter Brandt aptly pointed out though that markets do not care what analysts think or predict and will just do their own thing regardless.
“I’m amazed why traders take their market analysis, the outcome of a trade or opinion of other personally. The markets have no idea who we are & could care less if we are right or wrong.”