Bitcoin Ready to Fall by 25%?
After collapsing just the other day, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are right back at it. Just yesterday, BTC was sitting at $10,400, having fallen by over $3,000 from its local peak at $13,800 — a key resistance level and the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level of the entire bear market. Now, the leading cryptocurrency sits at $12,300, still shy of $13,800. While this rapid recovery has many claiming that BTC is ready to take on new all-time highs once again, one analyst suggests that this recovery sits Bitcoin right up for yet another collapse.
In a recent TradingView analysis, known trader Financial Survivalism claimed that the chances of a strong correction have been building for a while now, ever since Bitcoin broke past $5,800 and then $8,000.
The analysis, posted some 24 hours ago as of the time of writing this report, predicted the rebound to $12,400, which is just over where Bitcoin sits now.
This is important, as Survivalism predicted that once $12,400 has been hit, a correction to $9,000, which has acted as an important level of both support and resistance over the past few weeks, will begin to take place. This has yet to occur, but considering the accuracy of the target of $12,400, this 25% drop may come to fruition in the near future.
As to technical reasons for this reversal, Survivalism seemed to point out three. Firstly, a move to $9,000 would give Bitcoin a chance to revisit an uptrend support that BTC followed closely from late-April to just two weeks back. Secondly, the BitMEX funding rate has hit very high levels, implying that longs may need to close their positions, leading to a devaluation of the cryptocurrency. And lastly, the Average Directional Index, a technical analysis indicator meant to determine the strength of a trend, is “looking ready to roll over soon on the daily”, implying weakness.
Some Analysts Still Bullish Beyond Compare
While $9,000 seems to be on the table, especially considering the technical factors, some have been entirely optimistic. Naeem Aslam has remarked that as long as BTC stays above the 242-day moving average, which is somewhat unorthodox compared to the traditional 50 or 200-day, a correction is unlikely. In fact, he quips that in the short term, $20,000 is likely; and in the long run, Bitcoin could foray into the $60,000 to $100,000 range — just around five to eight times higher than current levels. Crazy, eh?
This may sound crazy to investors in traditional markets, most of which are used to 10% yearly gains, but many agree with Aslam’s cheer. In an email to CoinTelegraph, Simon Peters suggested that Bitcoin could reach $20,000 within one to two weeks.
The eToro analyst backed this claim by noting that when BTC first broke past $11,800 in 2017, it took just around a week or two to blast to $20,000. It is important to note that during the last boom, the conditions were different: the CME and CBOE had just announced their futures and retail investors were FOMOing.