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Options Market is Losing Confidence in Bitcoin; This Could Spell Trouble for 2020

27-Dec-2019

Bitcoin (BTC) has been able to incur some tempered bullishness today after a multi-day period of hovering around its support at $7,200. Today’s slight gains have come about in the face of a strong down trend, however, which could mean that these gains will ultimately prove to be fleeting and followed by further downside.

One factor that analysts are pointing to as support for the idea that the macro-bear trend is still far from being over is the fact that the options market is losing faith in BTC, which – in combination with other factors – could spell trouble for the crypto in the coming months.


Bitcoin Caught in Trading Range as Analysts Eye Movement to $6,000 



At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up just over 1% at its current price of $7,340, which marks a notable climb from its daily lows of just over $7,100 that were set earlier this week when bears attempted to push the crypto below its support at $7,000.

The lower-$7,000 region has been an important support level for the cryptocurrency in the time since it retraced from its late-October highs of $10,600, and the break below this level is what sparked the capitulatory drop to lows of $6,400 earlier this month.

Cantering Clark, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, explained in a recent tweet that he believes BTC’s current bout of sideways trading will ultimately result in another drop down to the $6,000 region, as buyers have struggled to move the crypto’s price, signaling that the current selling pressure is aggressive.

“1- Getting involved in mid-range for many is a coinflip, and a sure way to get flatfooted if you don’t have a clear edge. 2- Looks like all positioning metrics I observe along with CVD indicate buyers committing with no results to show for it. Send it back to 6k range,” he explained.






What Does the Options Market Currently Say About BTC?



Clark further explains in another tweet that the inability for Bitcoin’s bulls to sway the crypto’s price is not the only bearish sign, as the options market is also flashing signs that investors are losing faith in the cryptocurrency, signaling that a capitulatory movement could be imminent.

“Again, with the space maturing $BTC options mkt will be just as important to observe as it is in other markets. Short term 25 Delta RR showing that market is not very confident about the near future. Puts trading more expensively from an IV standpoint. Further out still NEG,” he said while pointing to the chart seen below.






Although low market sentiment can be a counter indicator, the option market’s lack of confidence in combination with other bearish factors could mean that the first part of the new year will be bearish for BTC and the aggregated crypto markets.